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The Write News -- News,
features and resources for media and publishing professionals
News, features and resources for media
and publishing professionals.

Wednesday, December 30, 1998
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IDC Predicts Major Web Portal Shakeout

A significant consolidation of Web portal giants, as well as a dramatic Internet stock correction, loom for the online industry in 1999, International Data Corporation (IDC) predicted today. These Internet market developments are among IDC's Fourth Annual Predictions of key Internet trends, strategies and events that will reshape business and society.

Major predictions for 1999 by Frank Gens, IDC's Senior Vice President, Internet Research are:
  • Mergers and Acquisitions: Yahoo! Partnering with TimeWarner or CBS, Microsoft to purchase a major Portal, a global financial services company such as Citigroup or Wells Fargo buying E*trade
  • Web access will become available in many retail stores, while live salespeople can be reached through retail Web sites
  • PC prices will drop to the $400 price range and finally penetrate more than half of U.S. homes
  • Men become the new minority on the Web, as does the U.S. as a whole
  • Internet usage will rocket to 147 million users, larger than the population of Japan
  • On-line spending will total nearly one trillion dollars by 2002
  • Disruptions from Y2K will be as low as 0.2% for business-critical applications
"Just as everyone thinks they know where the Internet is going in 1999, we are going to shift into a decidedly new phase in the Internet revolution," Gens said. "The Internet is going to closely mirror reality in who the Internet shopper is and where they live, how businesses succeed on the Net and how Internet stocks are valued in the market."

These Internet market shifts will create new opportunities and risks, resulting in new winners and losers. Gens' predictions -- which have been more than 70 percent accurate over the last three years -- rest solidly on IDC's in-depth research.

Three years ago, IDC shocked the market by predicting $800 to $1,000 PCs and last year, predicted major strategy shifts by Microsoft, Intel, Compaq and other key players. "The success of our predictions has been not to focus on what suppliers say they'll do. Instead, we focus on what the market will require them to do."

Competitive Realities Spawn Market Corrections, Consolidation Frenzy In 1999, IDC predicts the stock market will begin to correct artificially high values for Internet stocks. These deflated valuations, coupled with growing cash needs, intensifying competition, the need for critical mass and a possible recession, will drive a trend toward acquisitions of Internet companies by "real world" companies and mergers among Internet companies.

Possible additional deals include:
  • NBC buying more of CNET and Snap
  • Compaq selling off AltaVista
  • Infoseek merging with Lycos
Internet Commerce Boom Includes Web Access Entering Retail Stores IDC predicts that Internet commerce will more than double to $68 billion, making it the same scale as the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ireland and Poland. "For the first time ever, Internet commerce volume will exceed Bill Gates' wealth," said Gens.

Certain trends will emerge:
  • Fifty percent of U.S. households who are online will buy online
  • Virtual sites will become voice-enabled to give customers live sales assistance and customer support
  • "Brick-and-mortar" retailers will introduce Internet kiosks into their stores to give customers the information resources of the Internet
  • Personalization will be the ante for successful commerce sites
  • There will be a growing demand to measure the value of online sites in terms of "Lifetime Value of Customers"
  • Reaching international customers will become a critical success factor
  • "Not having an Internet presence and an Internet Commerce strategy is a recipe for market share loss," noted Gens. "In the U.S. market, starting in 1999, the virtual market is reality."
Changes on the technology front will continue in 1999:
  • PC prices will drop to the $400-$600 range among industry heavyweights such as Compaq and HP
  • More than three million Net TVs will be installed and activated
  • Home networking will roll out
Shifts in Demographic Profile, Men and U.S. No Longer the Majority on 'Net

In 1999 women become the online majority in the U.S. and the U.S. becomes an online minority:
  • Women will break through the 50 percent mark in online populations
  • For the first time, a majority of Internet users -- 51 percent -- will live outside the U.S.
"The feminization of the Internet is a very important shift, because women seek out different Web destinations than men, spend less time surfing online and are the primary decision-makers in the majority of household purchases," noted Gens.

IDC predicts that -- contrary to many current views -- the Year 2000 crisis will cause only modest disruptions. "A mere two-tenths of one percent of Y2K bugs will cause business-critical problems," Gens said.

The full text of Gens' Predictions will be on the IDC website. International Data Corporation is a comprehensive resource on worldwide IT markets, trends, products, vendors, and geographies. IDC's research and opinions are based on the results of more than 300,000 end-user surveys, in-depth competitive analysis, broad technology coverage, and strategic analysis.


Discovery Communications Completes Purchase of CBS Eye On People

Discovery Communications, Inc. and CBS Corporation have completed an agreement for Discovery's purchase of CBS Eye On People, a cable channel focused on people and personalities with 11 million cable and satellite subscribers.

According to the terms of the cash deal, Discovery owns 100% of the network, effective today. The new network will be called Discovery People and will be managed out of Discovery's offices in Bethesda. The new Discovery People name and logo are scheduled to debut on air January 11. Discovery plans to continue its focus on reality-based programming about people and personalities, produced by CBS News, Discovery and outside producers.

"We've decided to sell our entire stake in the channel and realize a financial gain. We believe this provides us with a good reward for starting the channel as well as gives Eye On People the focus and resources of a single owner," said Donald Mitzner, President, CBS Cable.

"The network's high quality, reality-based programming is a logical extension of Discovery's non-fiction networks," said Discovery Networks U.S. President Johnathan Rodgers. "While we expect the programming lineup to change over time, we still intend to air on Discovery People programs produced by CBS News, as well as Discovery's extensive library of people-oriented programs plus programs from other non-fiction producers."

Discovery Communications, Inc. (DCI) is a privately held, diversified media company headquartered in Bethesda, MD. Fueled by the world's largest original, non-fiction production engine, DCI operates four distinct business units including: -- Discovery Networks, TLC, Animal Planet, Travel Channel, Discovery Kids Channel, Discovery Science Channel, Discovery Home & Leisure Channel, Discovery Civilization Channel, Discovery Wings Channel, Discovery Health Channel and Discovery en Espanol. The unit also markets and distributes BBC America, which launched on March 29, 1998.


Dow Jones Interactive Publishing Launches Dow Jones University

Dow Jones Interactive Publishing today expanded its online investment-education focus with the launch of Dow Jones University, a collection of interactive investment courses taught by instructors covering and analyzing the financial markets.

Dow Jones University is the expanded successor to the recently launched Dow Jones International Investing Workshop, which was taught by John A. Prestbo, markets editor of The Wall Street Journal. The interactive online course educated hundreds of students on the risks and rewards of global investing.

Other instructors for the new series of courses include: Doug Sease, deputy markets editor for The Wall Street Journal; John Murphy, a Barron's columnist; and David Wessel, the Journal's chief economics correspondent in Washington, D.C.

"Dow Jones University takes full advantage of the dynamic Web environment. Students can spend time with instructors, attend events and interact with their peers, discussing course content and investing strategies. Combine that with the insight that the Interactive Journal is known for and the outcome is a unique opportunity to learn state-of-the-art investing principles from the world's premier business publisher," said Tom Baker, vice president and general manager of The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition.


Barron's Launches New Weekly Mutual Funds Pullout Section

Barron's, the Dow Jones Business and Financial Weekly, will begin publication of a new weekly pullout section on mutual funds beginning with the issue dated January 4, 1999. The pullout section, approximately 40 pages, will be in addition to the Market Week pullout, which was introduced as part of Barron's 1994 redesign.

Edwin Finn, president and editor of Barron's, said "Our new Mutual Funds pullout will make Barron's even more user-friendly, gathering all of Barron's' extensive mutual funds coverage and statistics in one place. It will also provide a new summary of the past week's action in mutual funds. We've already had a very positive reaction from advertisers to this new feature, and expect the same from readers."

In addition to Barron's, Dow Jones & Company publishes The Wall Street Journal and its international and interactive editions and SmartMoney magazine and other periodicals, Dow Jones Newswires, Dow Jones Indexes, Dow Jones Interactive, and the Ottaway group of community newspapers. Dow Jones is co-owner of the CNBC television operations in Asia and Europe, and also provides news content to CNBC in the U.S.




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