By 2020 Newspapers May Not Be Printed in Most Cities

Posted on April 25, 2001

The Electronic Document Systems Foundation (EDSF) has released a study, which reported various finding including the possiblity that by 2020 newspapers will not be printed in most major cities. In the study, researchers concluded that, despite advancements in digital media technologies, the overall volume of print will increase until 2020. Packaging and advertising will drive the growth while reading materials, financial and legal documents, stationery, and forms will experience volume declines. The new EDF study is named, ``Printing in the Age of the Web & Beyond: How Society Will Communicate in the 21st Century.''

Until print volumes peak in 2020, typographic printed documents will co-exist and co-evolve with digital documents. Technologies will evolve to compete with print, including very high-density storage, paper-like screens, long-life portable energy, and wirelessness. However, researchers predict that eventually text-based documents will lose market share to audio and video-based information sources.

``The question is not how print will die, but how will it live and integrate into a world that's hyperlinked to the future,'' said Frank Romano, EDP, vice chair of education for EDSF and director of research for the study. ``Information has always taken many forms, and it adapts to those forms over time. Print and electronic media will co-exist for the foreseeable future, according to the EDSF study, as new technological forces take effect.''

According to the study, the following trends are expected over the next 20 years:

The body of electronic information will grow dramatically so that, by 2020, 65 percent of all information will be communicated in electronic form.
Print will see some growth overall. Researchers expect a nominal increase in paper use of 1 to 2 percent per year through 2020. Print will command a dwindling share of the total body of information.
Methods of printing will change dramatically. As print on demand becomes the norm, nearly half of all printing will be done on printers on desktops in homes and businesses, and half on presses. Off-site printing will be enhanced by digital technologies, which can provide short run lengths, shorter turnaround times and cost-effective manipulation of variable data.

Impact to specific products:

Each type of print product will fare differently based upon the uptake of digital technologies.
By 2020 newspapers may not be printed in most American cities.
Business and consumer catalogs will see a drop in page count, but the number of catalog titles will increase.
Targeted mailings will be the norm.
With on-demand printing, authors will create a wider range of books, which will be printed as needed, probably in bookstores.
Direct mail marketing will grow slightly. Personalized promotions will be the norm.
Directories will see a substantial drop in circulation and page count as their content moves to the web.
The volume of paper forms will drop substantially.